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Gostic et al., 2020 simulates data from a stochastic SEIR model. Residence time in both the E and the I compartments is exponentially distributed, with a mean of 4 days (or a rate/inverse-scale of 1/4). These residence times imply a gamma-distributed generation time distribution with a shape of 2 and a rate of 1/4. We convert the continuous gamma distribution into a PMF to use with {RtGam}.

Usage

gostic_gt_pmf

Format

gostic_gt_pmf A numeric vector of length 26 that sums to one within numerical tolerance

Details

From this parametric specification, we produce a double-censored, left-truncated probability mass function of the generation interval distribution. We produce the PMF using {epinowcast}'s simulate_double_censored_pmf() with version 0.3.0. See https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.01.12.24301247 for more information on double-censoring biases and corrections.

We correct the output from simulate_double_censored_pmf() to make it appropriate to use with {EpiNow2}. The function returns a numeric vector, with the position of the element corresponding to one day more than the length of the delay and value corresponding to the amount of discretized probability density in the bin. The vector does not necessarily sum to one. We drop the first element of the vector, which corresponds to a zero-day delay. The renewal framework, which underpins our model does not account for zero-day delays. We renormalize the left-truncated vector to sum to one so that it's a proper PMF.